CO-04: Roll Call -- Markey 50%, Musgrave 43%

by: ck

08/26/08 @ 10:01:17 AM MDT

http://www.rollcall.com/issues...

Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's (R-Colo.) re-election appears to be in peril a little more than two months before Election Day, according to a new poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call.

The survey also found the presidential contest between presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) was essentially tied in Musgrave's eastern Colorado 4th district - territory that has historically been a Republican bastion.

Democrats descended on Denver this week for their nominating convention as a way of signaling their commitment to making the Centennial State - and the Mountain West as a whole - competitive in the presidential race. The poll done for Roll Call seemed to bear that out, as McCain led Obama by just 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

Meanwhile, Musgrave trailed Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call. Seven percent remained undecided. In an equally troubling sign for Musgrave, 51 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the three-term Congresswoman, while 31 percent viewed her favorably.

The poll of 618 likely voters was taken Aug. 22-24. It had a 4-point margin of error.

The survey found that Markey had a big lead among female voters, 53 percent to 38 percent. The two women were essentially tied among male voters.

More importantly, Markey had a huge lead in two voter groups that will be essential in deciding the election: independents and moderates. She led by 30 points among independent voters, 59 percent to 29 percent, and by 41 points among self-described moderates, 67 percent to 26 percent. Musgrave will have to close the gap in those two groups in order to have a chance at making the race competitive heading into Election Day.

Since this poll has Obama down by two points, compared with other polls that have him even or up slightly, Markey's margin might even be bigger than 7%.

Moderates and Independents abandoning the wingnut Musgrave is great news -- let's hope it's a trend!

Coordinated Campaign volunteers, tighten your shoelaces and go knock on doors!